The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making
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The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making

Scott Plous

4.3994 learners

Written by Scott Plous, *The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making* offers a comprehensive exploration of the cognitive biases, psychological mechanisms, and social influences that drive human decision-making. Drawing on decades of landmark experiments and real-world case studies, the book breaks down why people often make irrational choices—from the hostility media effect and cognitive dissonance to anchoring bias and overconfidence. It examines core theories like prospect theory and expected utility theory, contrasts intuitive judgment shortcuts with rational decision models, and explores how social dynamics, groupthink, and self-serving biases shape individual and collective choices. Additionally, it delves into the evolutionary roots of these biases and their practical applications across fields like public policy, business, and healthcare, equipping readers with insights to recognize and mitigate common decision pitfalls.

cognitive dissonanceConfirmation BiasGroupthinkHindsight BiasProspect Theory
The Little Book of Behavioral Investing
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The Little Book of Behavioral Investing

James Montier

4.3848 learners

In The Little Book of Behavioral Investing, James Montier exposes the hidden psychological traps that trip up even seasoned investors—from overconfidence and loss aversion to confirmation bias and herd mentality. Packed with real-world experiments, iconic investing case studies, and insights from legends like Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham, this book breaks down why we make irrational decisions when markets swing, and how to build disciplined strategies to fight back. You’ll learn to use pre-commitment plans to avoid impulsive trades, adopt a “kill the company” mindset to counter confirmation bias, and embrace contrarian thinking to capitalize on market bubbles and bear markets. Montier’s no-nonsense, relatable approach turns complex behavioral finance concepts into actionable steps, helping you rewire your brain for long-term investing success instead of chasing short-term wins.

Loss AversionEndowment EffectConfirmation BiasOverconfidenceContrarian Investing
Protagonist Mode
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Protagonist Mode

Fan Deng

3.2490 learners

"Protagonist Mode" is a no-fluff playbook for ditching passive, "waiting to be saved" mindsets and stepping into intentional growth—for both individuals and leaders. Fan Deng breaks down the hidden traps holding you back: confirmation bias that locks your beliefs in closed loops, the "learning paradox" that keeps you stuck in your comfort zone, and the "ordinary person paradox" that limits your potential with self-imposed limits. Using relatable stories—from character actor Lin Xue’s decades-long rise to Dong Yuhui’s career shift from teacher to top streamer—he shows growth isn’t a copyable linear path; it’s a unique, iterative journey rooted in your own experiences. For leaders, the book lays out critical qualities (optimism, humility, fairness) and actionable tools like the GROW Model, 10x Better thinking, and intentional boundaries to unlock team creativity and drive collective success. At its core, it’s about embracing self-responsibility: becoming the author of your own story, not a side character in someone else’s.

Growth MindsetSelf-ResponsibilityConfirmation BiasProtagonist ModeGROW Model
The Art of Thinking Clearly
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The Art of Thinking Clearly

Rolf Dobelli

4.2466 learners

In *The Art of Thinking Clearly*, Rolf Dobelli demystifies the hidden cognitive biases that skew our daily decisions—from the survivorship bias that makes us overestimate success odds to the sunk cost fallacy that traps us in bad choices. Using relatable real-world examples, from business failures to everyday mistakes, he breaks down dozens of common thinking errors, explaining how our evolutionary instincts and social conditioning lead us astray. Dobelli doesn’t just highlight these flaws; he offers practical, actionable strategies to recognize and counteract them, helping readers make more rational, informed choices in career, finance, relationships, and life. Whether you’re avoiding the bandwagon effect or escaping the confirmation bias echo chamber, this book is a toolkit for sharpening your critical thinking and navigating the world with greater clarity.

Survivorship BiasLoss AversionSunk Cost FallacyThinking BiasesOverconfidence Effect
Insight

Pain ≠ Growth Path

Pain isn't necessary for growth, but confirmation bias is an invisible barrier. It makes people fixate on supporting evidence, ignoring contrary info.

Cognitive BiasSelf-ImprovementGrowth Misconception
Method

Break Confirmation Bias

1. Question: Does the conclusion have data support? 2. Experiment: Control variables to observe results. 3. Self-criticism: Admit cognitive limits.

Critical thinkingCognitive ImprovementGrowth Method
Concept

Confirmation Bias

A cognitive trap where people seek evidence to support existing views, ignoring opposing info, leading to a closed cognitive loop.

Cognitive BiasCritical thinkingGrowth Trap
Concept

Confirmation Bias & Zettelkasten

We tend to seek info that supports our beliefs. Zettelkasten fights this by making you link conflicting ideas—you can’t ignore opposing views when they’re right there in your note network.

Cognitive BiasCritical thinkingZettelkasten
Scenario

Manhole Cover Superstition

Someone believes stepping on manhole covers brings bad luck. When they step on one and encounter misfortune, they take it as proof, ignoring bad luck when avoiding covers.

SuperstitionConfirmation BiasCognitive Trap
View

Avoid 3 Data Fallacies

Three pitfalls: 1. Prioritizing active data over user stories;2. Chasing surface growth (adding products);3. Confirmation bias (ignoring conflicting data).

Decision MakingJTBDData Fallacies
Scenario

Darwin’s Self-correction Habit

Darwin actively looked for evidence that could falsify his own theory of evolution, and avoided the common "confirmation bias" that most people can not resist.

Sciencethinkingself improvement
Concept

Confirmation Bias

This is the root of all thinking errors: you automatically filter out all information that contradicts your existing beliefs, and only keep the stuff that proves you are right.

cognitive errorinformation filterBelief Trap
Insight

Fight Confirmation Bias Actively

Your brain will automatically erase contradictory evidence after 30 minutes. You have to intentionally go looking for disagreeing opinions, not just stay in your echo chamber.

Cognitive BiasCritical thinkingself improvement
Method

How To Fight Confirmation Bias

1. Write down your most cherished beliefs. 2. Spend 10 minutes every day looking for evidence that proves these beliefs are wrong.

Cognitive BiasCritical thinkingself improvement
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