Carmen M. Reinhart；Kenneth S. Rogoff

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This book dismantles the persistent 'This Time Is Different' myth by drawing on centuries of global financial crisis data—from 14th-century sovereign defaults to the 2008 subprime meltdown. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff systematically unpack recurring patterns across crises, including sovereign debt defaults, banking collapses, hyperinflation, and currency devaluations, revealing that overconfidence, excessive borrowing, and disregard for historical precedents drive every crisis. They introduce pivotal concepts like 'debt intolerance,' explaining why emerging markets face default risks at far lower debt thresholds than developed nations, and shed light on the overlooked role of domestic public debt in triggering financial meltdowns. By cross-referencing cross-country and historical case studies, the authors prove financial crises are predictable, not random, and urge policymakers and investors to prioritize historical warning signs over the illusion of 'new era' immunity.