Superforecasting
We make predictions every day—from picking a commute route to making major career or investment calls. Yet when high-stakes decisions arise, we often turn to celebrity experts whose track records are rarely rigorously tested. In *Superforecasting*, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner introduce the "superforecasters": a tiny 2% of ordinary people who consistently outperform top experts in predicting global events, from geopolitical conflicts to economic shifts. These aren’t geniuses—they’re people who master actionable skills: breaking down complex questions with Fermi decomposition, balancing external statistical baselines with internal contextual details, updating predictions incrementally using Bayesian thinking, and avoiding cognitive traps like groupthink or overconfidence. The book also explores how teams can harness collective wisdom without falling into groupthink, and why embracing uncertainty and probability thinking is key to making smarter decisions in an unpredictable world. It’s a practical guide to turning vague guesses into precise, evidence-based forecasts that work for your personal and professional life.