China 2049: Economic Challenges of a Rising Global Power
China 2049: Economic Power takes readers on a comprehensive journey through China’s remarkable economic transformation—from its imperial-era economic peaks to the post-1978 reform boom that turned it into the world’s second-largest economy. Authors Yang Yao and David Dollar break down the core drivers of this historic rise: early planned economy foundations, demographic dividends, and aggressive opening-up policies. They then unpack the critical shifts underway: moving from export-led growth to a consumption-driven model, navigating de-industrialization, and addressing pressing challenges like slowing total factor productivity (TFP), rapid population aging, and evolving global trade tensions. Using cross-country productivity convergence theory and demographic data, the book projects China’s economic trajectory to 2049, when it could reclaim its 1820 share of global GDP. It also outlines actionable reforms across sectors—from state-owned enterprise restructuring and innovation policy to green transition and financial liberalization—while examining China’s evolving role in global trade, technology competition, and RMB internationalization. Essential reading for anyone seeking to understand China’s economic future and its global impact.